In the fourth quarter of shipping industry will be steady recovery
http://www.100allin.com to 12:00 on October 14, 2013
Recently, the Shanghai international shipping research center released the international shipping market analysis report review and outlook in the fourth quarter of the third quarter of 2013, covering the international container transportation market review and outlook in the fourth quarter of the third quarter of 2013, the international dry bulk shipping market review and outlook in the fourth quarter of the third quarter of 2013, the international oil tanker transportation market review and outlook in the fourth quarter of the third quarter of 2013.
According to the report, in the third quarter of the world economy continued steady growth, the change from the second quarter. Global economic growth pattern presented in 2008 years since the financial crisis of the world's new change, the world economy has bottomed out, slow recovery. Among them, the U.S. economy to maintain moderate growth, the euro zone economy bottoming picks up, Mr Abe economic policies are helping Japan out of the shadow of economic growth, and collective weakness in emerging markets, especially the major developing countries such as India, Brazil and other expansion pace is slowing.
International container transportation market, the steady rise of shipping demand in the third quarter, freight rate rose slightly, but the late rise out of steam. Late in the third quarter in cargo growth slowing, capacity are dropping, the ship launching, liner company business strategy under the influence of multiple factors, of the difference of the line segment diverge. Including Europe, the Mediterranean route after two months after rising volatility, September rate gradually callback, and the Pacific (601099, shares) held steady is the basic of the line, do a little change of the line. As of September 18, 2013, the Shanghai shipping exchange published by China export containers comprehensive freight index was 1104.96 points, compared with 2013 in the second quarter of the average rate of 1065.7 up 3.7%; The Shanghai containerised freight index is 990.97, the rate fell by an average of 4% in the second quarter.
International dry bulk shipping market, the international dry bulk market in July after shock downward in the third quarter, a sharp rebound in early August, the rally was once until the end of the quarter, the overall market to show rising sharply, strong. BDI index broke through two thousand mark on September 25, and strong all the way higher, close to its highest level since 2010. The capesize ship market leads the overall market, panamax ship market and handy-size market gradually began to support the afternoon. From the point of BDI index months mean, 2013 international dry bulk shipping market as a whole is in recovery, and in the third quarter rose sharply, fall quarter end. As of September 30, 2013, BDI index closed at 2003 points, the third quarter of the average of 1269 points, up 50% year-on-year (quarterly), monthly (quarterly) rose by 42.9%.
International tanker transportation market, global oil demand is strong in the third quarter, international oil prices high and volatile, because of the influence of geopolitics in the Middle East, the international crude oil prices rise sharply, China and the United States economic recovery driven crude oil import demand, crude oil shipping demand has increased accordingly. At the same time, global oil demand rose slightly, refined oil shipping demand picks up. Freight, in the third quarter of 2013 BDTI type "M" volatile, quarter late fall all the way; Refined oil products, by the American car drive travel season and summer air conditioning oil increase, lead to BCTI from the third increases, the market rate "N" type general trend.
Report predicts that with economic needs of the world's leading economies slow recovery, the international shipping market has bottomed out, take part in the capacity to digest, the future main cargo transport market adjust a steady recovery, the upper and lower volatility will gradually narrowed.
International container transportation market, as the effect delivery before Christmas day, the fourth quarter of the global container HaiYunLiang into downward interval, in the fourth quarter at the end of the shipment for the New Year, HaiYunLiang will get a certain degree, cargo year-on-year growth is expected to improve. As the ship deliveries, excess capacity will further aggravate the freight market, supply and demand imbalances will have weighed on freight rates in the fourth quarter of the container market. Although shipping company announced plans to increase in the price of October and November, but the rate of market pressure may be difficult to achieve expected to rise, and the future will continue to lower, later the first peak, is expected to rebound.
International dry bulk shipping market, in the fourth quarter mainly dry bulk cargo shipping trade will remain a small growth. Specifically, the iron ore seaborne trade growth will fall; Coal shipping trade with the coming of winter increased, grain demand picks up, and will be together in the fourth quarter of the international dry bulk shipping trade is an important driving force. Major airlines freight rates will still be up power support, but later, the main reason lies in the iron ore seaborne trade will be limited, but does not rule out major miners in order to eliminate the supply pressure by means of market manipulation, which pushed up the freight. Coal and grain will become the main engine in the fourth quarter of international dry bulk shipping market. Especially in China's grain demand and coal demand will be injected some energy to the market. Is expected in the fourth quarter will be the basis of freight consolidation is relatively strong, BDI index rise further space is not large, the average will be stable at around 1500.
International tanker transportation market, the world's leading economies PMI index rose and the northern hemisphere winter heating oil demand growth, the international oil consumption will increase. At the same time, due to the recent changes in the Middle East and oil prices rose faster, and fostering short-term crude oil import demand. In the fourth quarter of crude oil transport demand is a small increase in the third quarter of 2013, production and marketing into balance; Refined oil transport demand will rebound. Refinery capacity recovery and falling inventories will lead to increased oil transportation demand. And a tanker vessel growth will continue to slow, basic maintain capacity scale in the third quarter. BDTI average at around $630 in the fourth quarter is expected to average BCTI near 610, the overall level is slightly lower than in 2012. (Guo Jianpeng)